The junior docs’ strikes could also be over. But is bother forward?

It had been the NHS’s longest-running and bitterest pay dispute – accountable for lots of of hundreds of cancelled operations and appointments.

And then, all of a sudden, phrase got here on Monday that the British Medical Association was recommending that its 50,000 junior physician members settle for a recent provide from the brand new authorities.

It sounded nearly too good to be true. And now some are questioning if it is perhaps.

Last Friday, simply three days after formal negotiations began on the Department of Health’s London headquarters, Health Secretary Wes Streeting laid his playing cards on the desk.

It was, he made clear to the British Medical Association delegation, a ultimate provide – a pay rise topping 22% on common over two years in England.

The union’s staff stated they wished to consider it over the weekend. On Sunday, the BMA junior physician leaders met and determined that, whereas it fell wanting their demand for a 35% pay enhance, this was the most effective deal they might get.

Cue a lot trumpeting from the federal government – in her look on the House of Commons, Chancellor Rachel Reeves paid tribute to work put in by the well being secretary.

Mr Streeting had met the BMA joint junior physician leaders Dr Rob Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi a number of instances earlier than the election – asking them of their final assembly on Zoom to name off the strike they had been about to carry within the lead-up to polling day.

When he was made well being secretary, Mr Streeting instantly known as the BMA to arrange talks. Two conferences had been held with Dr Laurenson and Dr Trivedi in a 10-day interval following his appointment – earlier than the formal pay talks began.

The well being secretary’s hand was helped by the very fact the impartial pay evaluation physique’s suggestions for the 2024-25 pay rise had simply landed on his desk, suggesting a 6% pay rise and £1,000 lump sum be given.

This allowed him to make a proposal which successfully mixed two years of pay rises. He topped up final 12 months’s pay award – price almost 9% on common – with an additional 4% in addition to agreeing to the pay evaluation physique’s suggestion for the present monetary 12 months.

In lower than per week of talks, the brand new well being secretary had achieved what the earlier authorities had didn’t do over the course of 11 strikes within the earlier 18 months.

“What’s important is it could be presented as a win-win for both sides,” one supply near the talks stated.

“The BMA got a big number, while the government only put in an extra 4% above what the pay review body recommended across the two years – that is just one percentage point more than what the Tories put on the table back in December when talks collapsed.”

Defending the deal, Ms Reeves known as the prices – round £350m – a “drop in the ocean” in comparison with the £1.7bn price of NHS strikes.

That might all be true, however what’s on provide to junior docs has not gone unnoticed elsewhere within the NHS.

A pay rise of solely 2% for NHS employees was budgeted for within the funding given to the well being service this 12 months.

The Treasury has indicated it is going to cowl a number of the additional, however maybe not all. That has induced concern amongst senior managers working hospitals.

“Unless we get additional money to pay for this pay rise we will have to take money out of services and that is not right for the people that we serve,” says Nick Hulme, the boss of Ipswich and Colchester Hospitals.

There’s additionally frustration amongst different frontline employees who’re having to make do with a lot much less. Staff reminiscent of nurses, midwives, paramedics and physios have acquired somewhat greater than half the rise junior docs have received.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) has stated it is going to now be consulting its members to see what they need to do – and industrial motion will not be being dominated out.

“We do not begrudge doctors their pay rise,” RCN chief Prof Nicola Ranger says. “What we ask for is the same fair treatment from government.”

Prof Len Shackleton, an economist on the University of Buckingham and analysis fellow on the Institute of Economic Affairs, believes this may very well be simply the beginning of a recent spherical of pay calls for.

“The government is naïve if it thinks this is over – other unions will look at this deal and think they can get more, not just those in the NHS but across the public sector. This could spiral out of control.”

On Thursday GPs launched a work-to-rule over what they are saying is inadequate funding for common follow – though the poll main as much as this was run earlier than the junior physician deal was introduced.

And already there are indicators the junior docs themselves can be again asking for extra.

In WhatsApp messages leaked to the Times newspaper, Dr Laurenson stated there could be one other “window of opportunity” in 12 months time for additional strikes when the brand new authorities’s honeymoon interval is over.

He stated he “desperately” wished to get extra from ministers, however this was the most effective that may very well be achieved for now. When the story emerged, he took to X to say he had informed Mr Streeting as a lot to his face in the course of the talks.

The finish of the NHS industrial disputes is probably not as shut because it first appeared.

Top image: Getty Images

Daily News InDepth is the brand new dwelling on the web site and app for the most effective evaluation and experience from our high journalists. Under a particular new model, we’ll carry you recent views that problem assumptions, and deep reporting on the largest points that will help you make sense of a fancy world. And we’ll be showcasing thought-provoking content material from throughout Daily News Sounds and iPlayer too. We’re beginning small however considering massive, and we need to know what you suppose – you may ship us your suggestions by clicking on the button beneath.