Eluned Morgan and Welsh Labour’s uncharted territory

Welsh Labour politicians enter what for a lot of of them is uncharted territory subsequent week.

After 25 years in energy, the get together has spent the previous 5 months tearing itself aside over outgoing First Minister Vaughan Gething.

Most of Labour’s MSs have by no means been right here earlier than – solely three of the 30 have been within the then-assembly in 1999 when Rhodri Morgan took over following the resignation of Alun Michael.

The fast problem for Eluned Morgan, who on Tuesday – barring something unexpected – will turn into our third first minister of 2024, is to get again to the extra acquainted floor of self-discipline and public unity.

Ms Morgan does look like beginning with an unlimited quantity of goodwill from her colleagues.

There is a way that she had already “taken one for the team” by staying on as well being secretary beneath Mr Gething, regardless of heavy hints that she wished to go away.

Labour MSs are additionally acutely conscious that voters will punish them on the 2026 Senedd election if they don’t begin to give attention to Welsh points fairly than Welsh Labour.

But among the wounds throughout the get together after nonetheless uncooked.

Jeremy Miles would have stood for chief once more, having misplaced earlier this 12 months, however determined he couldn’t unite his colleagues.

There have been fears that some supporters of Mr Gething would have made his life too tough.

Some of these wounds will take time to heal totally.

As that course of begins, the primary assessments of management loom for Ms Morgan.

She must appoint a cupboard and take into consideration the necessity to unite the get together.

There is an expectation in some quarters that there can be minimal change subsequent week – a brand new well being secretary and counsel common, earlier than an even bigger reshuffle later within the 12 months.

Would Mr Miles be requested to tackle the well being temporary? Some inside Labour count on that to occur.

I’ll depart it to your judgement as as to whether taking up that job – with its intractable issues – is a curse or an honour.

But it’s a route map to turning into first minister – Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething and Ms Morgan herself have all carried out it.

Longer time period, we have no idea if Mr Miles nonetheless harbours his personal management ambitions and whether or not he has a watch on past 2026.

There can also be the query of what to do with Vaughan Gething – does he discover himself again in cupboard or on the backbenches?

Since turning into Labour chief, Ms Morgan has been on a “listening exercise”, which sooner or later might want to flip right into a speaking one.

The phrase “delivery” retains cropping up.

There is definitely stress to set her stall out early, each when it comes to her imaginative and prescient and what she needs to realize particularly by the point of the subsequent election.

The Cardiff Central MS Jenny Rathbone has already talked of a “vacuum” round what Ms Morgan stands for, as a result of there was no management contest and subsequently no manifesto.

Health and the economic system look like the place among the FM-elect’s colleagues would really like her to focus, with a suggestion that among the “guff” – because it was described to me – is placed on the backburner.

Budget constraints and dauntingly excessive NHS ready lists make her job even tougher.

We are maybe seeing the inevitable indicators of apathy in the direction of Welsh Labour after 1 / 4 of a century in cost, and an urge for food for change.

Their infighting in 2024 hasn’t helped and has hit them in polling for the Senedd.

If Eluned Morgan can unite her get together, show to voters that she has delivered and persuade them that she represents a contemporary begin, maybe among the injury will be mitigated.

But it’s a robust inheritance.

She will want all her political expertise – and a celebration united behind her – to navigate the subsequent 18 months efficiently.